Now we are a few weeks into 2020 we can analyse what the economists believe about the housing market with new statistics released for late last year. 2019 was not an excellent year for house sales. According to independent home buyer Quick Move Now the fall through rate for the year was a sizable 24.42%.
On the authority of the Royal Institution of Chartered Accountants, we can expect a much better market in 2020. They state that in November 2019, the sales expectation in the next 12 months was a woeful +35%, but as of January 2020 this sits at +66%. So why is this?
As stated in our previous blog post about the market, the likely answer in relating to the result of the general election. Throughout the UK, many potential vendors have awaited a decision on Brexit, before putting their best foot forward and getting their property on the market. In estate agent circles they are calling it ‘The Boris Bounce’. The number of national sales agreed in January 2020 rose to +9%. This is the first time, according to the RICS since May 2019 that the number of sales agreed has gone positive.
This not only affects vendors but applicants too. Its simple, more properties on the market, more applicants register for your services. According to Estate Agent Today, the level of enquiries in January rose in the South East and London, which after the poor stats in November is very promising.
As well as this, official government data has showed that UK house prices raised to 2.2% in November 2019, up 0.9% from October.
However, according to the Chief Economic Adviser at the economic forecasting group EY ITEM Club stated that “The economy still looks set for a pretty challenging 2020 and there will still be appreciable uncertainties, including on the UK-EU relationship front – so the upside for house prices in 2020 is likely to be limited”.
So, what does all this mean? Well, we think that we can expect a very positive year when it comes to sales and the amount that are completed, however, it is likely that house prices as a whole will stay reasonably stagnant, just in keeping with the rate of inflation, due to the uncertainty regarding finally leaving the EU. All that we can say is that 2020 is looking like the best time to think about a move, with more applicants than in the past and more properties to choose from whatever your position.
Neil Newstead FARLA MNAEA MIRPM
CEO – Oakfield Estate Agents